By Clark Mei – Code Green Committee
For many, the words “global warming” simply suggest a warmer climate. The truth, however, is that the effects of climate change are far more extensive, and potentially deadly. Climate models have revealed that climate change will increasingly be responsible for an upsurge in deaths and injury due to more intense, long-lasting and frequent natural disasters.
According the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), added greenhouse gas levels are responsible for increased average temperature and variability. A combination of more frequent and extreme hot weather means that events such as droughts and bushfires will become more common.
Storms, on the other hand, are predicted to be less frequent, but as a consequence, more intense. Amplified temperatures will result in enhanced evaporation, making the atmosphere more hot and humid. While this has little impact at the equator, where such weather is already hot and humid, temperature differences between the poles and the equator will decrease, which, according to a research scientist at NASA, will diminish the frequency of storms.
This added water vapour is fuel for storms. Storms will thus intensify, delivering larger payloads of water, escalating the risk of flooding, as drainage systems (both natural and artificial) may become over-loaded. The lower frequency of storms will also contribute to longer droughts as rain is delivered in a single package rather than being distributed over time. Indonesia, for example, is expected to experience more intense rainfall, exacerbated by a shorter rainy season, with a two to three per cent increase each year, magnifying the risk of floods, according to a report by the World Wildlife Fund.
Heat and water are two vital components in the formation of a hurricane. As such, increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes is likely. The expansion of the equatorial low climate belt will also expand the reach of hurricanes, as areas previously unaffected adopt conditions that are more conducive to their formation.
Furthermore, an increase in sea level due to the thermal expansion of the ocean and the melting of the ice caps heightens the risk of coastal flooding. For example, the sea level at Jakarta Bay, Indonesia is anticipated to rise by 0.57cm annually, causing the coastline to move inland and snowballing risks of coastal flooding, according a report by the Asian Development Bank in 2009
So what impact does this have on global health? The first and most obvious answer is that the extended frequency and intensity of natural disasters will directly cause more deaths due to trauma, drowning and heat-stroke.
Less considered, however, are secondary disasters. These indirect health impacts are often derived from forced population displacement and the destruction of local infrastructure. For example, individuals involved in debris clean up can be injured by unstable structures. Depression and other mental health problems can also arise out of bereavement, property loss and social disruption. The most common diseases identified by the IPCC have been water-borne diseases, such as diarrhoea, contracted from ingesting contaminated water, and respiratory diseases, due to overcrowding in shelters. These are waiting disasters that we cannot ignore.
References:
The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters – NASA
Extreme Events and Weather Disasters – IPCC
Indonesia: A Vulnerable Country in the Face of Climate Change
Climate Change in Indonesia – WWF
Image: ‘Eradicating polio one case at a time’ by UN/Ariane Rummery available at http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/4080557345/ under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0. Full terms at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/